There is nothing to write now. And following this trend, I decided to describe one well-known evaluation method that means nothing. 

This is the "Gordon growth model".

I used to know that this generally accepted method was nonsense and stupidity, but I didn't bother to formulate it.

Now I'll do it.

This model represents the value of the company in the form of an infinite series of future dividends, which are discounted by some required yield.

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The percentage curve becomes flat and normalizes.

Picture 1.

This means that the market estimates inflation risks in the near future no more than in the distant future, and believes that the Central Bank rate will be lower. In a sense, we see an average percentage rate for many years, but the current trend is going down.

The weighted average rate, according to the Central Bank, is 8.45 percent for the period from 2013 to 2022, and the weighted average inflation rate for the same period is 6.8%.

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The company has announced good dividends, but the future prospects for shareholder welfare are in the fog.

The best report always complies with Russian accounting standards, and even here the problems become obvious.

Free cash flow and dividends have diverged too far, and this does not fit into the usual norms.

Picture 1.

The liquidity of the balance sheet is constantly deteriorating, and financial liabilities are growing.

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Inflation slows down somewhat from month to month.

Picture 1.

But the financial system has a large reserve of money that is in current accounts.

Picture 2.

This is the result and continuation of the Covid story.

Thus, the risks of inflation remain.

The FRB is trying to reduce its con ... Читать дальше »

Companies of energy sector operate in the domestic market and are more sustainable to the changing conjuncture. Thus, we have more opportunities for some forecasting.

The main message we can derive from the latest report is a reduction in money flow and an increase in capital expenditure. 

Picture 1.

These data allow us to assume that the period of dividend growth is in the past.

And most likely dividends for 21st year will not exceed 0,08 kopecks  on share.

Some companies do not adhere to the temporary tradition of not publishing reports.

So that's the reason to watch it. Nothing interesting.

I think that speculators in the market are twitching in vain.

Today, I do not see the company's intention to pay good dividends.

Mosenergo is increasing capital expenditures and issuing dubious loans.

Net profit does not correspond to the mone ... Читать дальше »

Gazprom is one of the few companies that can pay dividends, and I took the trouble to read its report. Last year, free cash flow and half of net profit coincided.

And, most likely, about 45 rubles will be paid.

Gazprom is also one of those stocks that I trade with a positive result, but now my tactics have changed.

In the past, if the price dropped after my trade, I left some stocks. But at the moment I strive to sell even with minimal profit.

The picture below shows my past prediction and what happened.

Of course, I have an opinion about the future, and I believe that the stock will fall.

But my actions are never based on assumptions. Among the meager number of shares that I have left, I am developing a technology to act in a falling market.

The game goes in three directions up down and just goes to the right with random fluctuations.

Turkey is a good example when a very sovereign leader loses the sovereignty of his currency by spending as much money as he want.

It’s in continuing the topic about the spread.  If you had the decision to keep this instrument in your portfolio, you could make some money by trading the spread. These state issues have equal coupon and time of its payment.  But this is not so important and can be used for others.

When the market falls, the absolute spread between their quotes increases, and the relative yield decreases.

This is reason why percentage curve has inversion and has arched in other direction.   

Moving from one bond issue to another during a fall, you solve two problems: taxes when yo ... Читать дальше »