Budget expenditures remain above 13% and, according to the budget plan, will stay at this level through the end of the current year.

The growth rate of lending will be slightly below this 13% threshold, which, taken together with the expenditure figures, points to an inflation rate of 6%.

So, any changes in financial conditions aren’t expected.   

The M2 monetary aggregate continues to decline due to lending, but the liquidity deficit remains at a record high.

Figures 1 and 2.

This situation reflects the problem of non-market management in the financial system and creates an inflated level of the real interest rate.

The liquidity deficit is eliminated at the expense of the Central Bank's funds, which begin to play an important role in maintaining equilibrium.

For the first nine months of 2026, Severstal’s free cash flow has not risen above zero.

The ability to make payments to shareholders depends on two obvious factors:

1. the size of equity relative to the balance sheet;
2. the size of net profit relative to the equity;

Thus, we can represent these dependencies in the form of a simple formula:

1. Shareholders' ability to pay dividends = equity * ratio (ratio = equity/balance sheet)

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As of October, budget expenditures accounted for about 14% year-on-year and are the reason for all other financial developments.

The M2 monetary aggregate remains at 14% and is not going to decline.

Inflation, liquidity shortages and rising interest rates will also persist.

MMK’s financial results do not bode well for the company.

US budget expenditures remain at a low level.

Despite the budget deficit, inflation will not be too acute.

Phosagro's do is not going too well.

The M2 monetary aggregate is slowly declining, but remains at 13 percent.

Figure1

Money is being converted into cash and short-term assets - liabilities and loans are under pressure.

The percentage of interest income in M2 is decreasing.

Figure2.

This can stimulate the flow of money into currency and stock speculation.