This is about how the market's opinion changes depending on the time and the key rate when estimating the price of OFZ 26252.

Previously, the market estimated the price as the yield to maturity.

But now it is estimated as a coupon cash flow.

Risks are being reassessed.

Budget expenditures remain at the  high average level.

Inflation and the Central Bank's key rate will follow suit.

The M2 monetary aggregate is approaching the average of 14%.

Figure 1.

Cash has aggressive growth.

 Figure 2.

Weekly inflation returns to the previous level.

ECB is briskly reducing reserve assets, and this strengthens the euro.

Weekly inflation does not shift from the average of 7-8%.

Budget expenditures continue to remain at an excessive level, which pushes monetary aggregates to grow.

Figure 1 and 2.

In addition, the reduction in the Central Bank's key rate has led to a flow of funds into short-term liabilities and cash.

Figure 3 and 4.

This is a dangerous situation that creates a liquidity shortage and leads to an increase in the reserve obligations of the Central Bank.

... Читать дальше »

Since the beginning of February, the printing press has been back in operation.

Figure 1.

When the Central Bank prints cash that is not an interest-bearing liability, it must buy a debit asset.

Usually, the role of this asset is performed by gold, which also does not generate interest income.

But perhaps, for some time, this money can be used to lend to banks as the liquidity shortage increases.

... Читать дальше »

Dividends and all other indicators have gathered around the number 400.

The price on the stock exchange does not look cheap at all.

Figure 1.

Gazprom has a record for cash losses in the year 2025.