Inflation is usually measured in relative numbers. Relationships always require a point of reference.

For this purpose, data for the previous year for the same period is most often used.

But now we've come to the point where it doesn't work.

If we have a sharp spike in data, then the attitude to this data shows a distorted picture.

Today, the picture of weekly inflation looks like this.

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It is already known that the year continues a series of losses.

The realization that the losses of the broad market are much greater does not give me pleasure.

My loss is 3,4%.

The  MOEX Russia Net Total Return (Resident) Index lost 38%.

Our common history is depicted in the figure below in relative numbers and cumulative totals.

Dollar did not hang out below trend for long.

Business is not going.

Figure 1.

I'm not sure they will be able to pay dividends until year 23.

Figure 2.

The stock price history is shown in the picture above.

The company does not want to show its report in the usual way, and we have to guess on the coffee grounds about the results.

Now I assume, by indirect evidence, the next dividends for this year will be no more than 7.5 rubles per share.

Figure 1.

This figure does not imply an increase in stock prices.   = 7,5 /9% =83,3

But the market is always in its own dreams.

Now the price ... Читать дальше »

Norilsk Niсkel.

The company has shown a good report, but it will not help us evaluate or present a price perspective.

The gap between the past and the future is insurmountable.

Thus, we are in a space with a maximum speculative component.

If we double the figures in six months, then the history of finance looks like this.

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I have depicted the quotes of Alrosa in this way.

Stocks don't want to keep falling, and that gives room for trading.

I decided to add one indicator. This is the price of the weighted average volume.

Most market participants have Alrosa shares at about this level.

Now, when the market is going to hell, I took the time to assess the losses of my portfolio since the beginning of this year.

The extended formula of the internal rate of return gives 5 percent of loss.

I think I can brag about it.

I want to remember that the bulk of my assets are long-term OFZs.

I think everyone knows about the restructuring of the electric grid sector.

Of course, this is not very good news for investors who can say goodbye to dividends.

But for traders, this may have better consequences.

Most likely, the purchase price will strive for the average price over the past month and will grow slowly.

Thus, it gives a good tool for trading.

Now it looks like this. ... Читать дальше »

One successful story ended this week. I got out of MTS shares.

This went on for four years when I held at least one stock in my portfolio.

The size of my position in relative numbers can be represented as follows.

Figure 1.

The last number is profit.

Calculating it was not easy, but I did it.

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