Фондовый рынок

Liquidity of baking system and Central Bank’s key rate.

Воронноров — Sun, 26 Apr 2026 03:38:46 GMT

One of the functions of changing the key rate is to maintain the liquidity of banks in the neutral zone.

Figure 1.

The deviation of this indicator to the deficit area, that is, above zero, is a sign of weakness in monetary policy.

Thus, further reduction of the key rate becomes an uncertain issue.

US budget expenditures.

Воронноров — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 03:16:11 GMT

The annual growth rate of budget expenditures over the past twelve months in the United States remains low, so the dollar has every chance of being strong.

Gazprom Neft.

Воронноров — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 09:21:47 GMT

Gazprom Neft has exhausted its ability to pay unearned dividends.

Thus, it will return to more unpleasant levels.

It's impossible to predict exactly now, but some boundaries and numbers can be outlined.

Figure 1.

The company does not provide full-fledged reporting, but this can be expressed through indirect dependencies, such as CF^2/ balance sheet or Net profit^2/ Working Capital.

Budget and inflation.

Воронноров — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 15:58:30 GMT

Budget expenditures are returning to 17% and the average level.

This directly affects inflation, which is also returning to its average level of about 7-9%.

This is not the best background for lowering the Central Bank's interest rate.

Figure 1,2,3,

Monetary base.

Воронноров — Sat, 04 Apr 2026 09:06:36 GMT

Despite the Central Bank's good key rate, cash continues to flow out of banks.

Figure 1.

This is an unfavorable sign for inflation and monetary policy and indicates its weakening.

The risks of the financial system always grow with the growth and fluctuations of the monetary base.

Figure 2.

EL5-Energo.

Воронноров — Sat, 28 Mar 2026 16:08:58 GMT

The company showed a good report and increased the chances of growth on the stock exchange and a return to paying dividends in the near future.

Budget expenditures.

Воронноров — Sat, 28 Mar 2026 14:39:42 GMT

Budget expenditures returned to the average level with a growth rate of 17%.

This is not good for inflation, and unless spending is reduced, the market interest rate will remain stuck at the same level.

NLMK.

Воронноров — Sat, 28 Mar 2026 08:38:25 GMT

All indicators are below the average dividend line and indirectly calculated free cash flow, which I call financial potential.

Therefore, the price has every chance to be below 100 rubles per share.

Figure 1.

The indicator = CF^2 / Balance sheet

Воронноров — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 08:23:47 GMT

I continue to test the indicator = CF^2 / Balance sheet

In many cases, it gives good results.

For example, this is Gazprom.

Figure 1.

The FCF indicator is too volatile and does not provide a stable picture for evaluation.

CF^2 / Balance sheet fluctuates around 10 rubles, and we now know that dividends of 51 rubles for year 22 were paid in advance for 5 years.

Budget expenses.

Воронноров — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 14:43:12 GMT

In February, budget expenditures remained low compared to the previous year.

This will be followed by economic activity, as well as monetary circulation, which we call lending.

Thus, the Central Bank's key rate has every chance of falling, and long-term bonds are still of interest.

Figure 1.