Фондовый рынок

Cash and liquidity.

Воронноров — Sat, 16 May 2026 15:43:23 GMT

Since the beginning of February, the printing press has been back in operation.

Figure 1.

When the Central Bank prints cash that is not an interest-bearing liability, it must buy a debit asset.

Usually, the role of this asset is performed by gold, which also does not generate interest income.

But perhaps, for some time, this money can be used to lend to banks as the liquidity shortage increases.

Figure 2.

In any case, this is a printing press that loosens monetary policy and increases the amount of money available.

However, at the moment this creates a liquidity gap as it is short-term in nature and cannot be used for loans and long-term obligations.

Therefore, long-term bonds, even with good yields, may come under pressure.

Moreover, it calls into question the monetary policy and further reduction of the Central Bank's interest rate.

Changes in cash and liquidity shortages are shown in Figure 3.

PhosAgro.

Воронноров — Sun, 10 May 2026 15:31:32 GMT

Dividends and all other indicators have gathered around the number 400.

The price on the stock exchange does not look cheap at all.

Figure 1.

Gazprom.

Воронноров — Fri, 01 May 2026 15:18:28 GMT

Gazprom has a record for cash losses in the year 2025.

Liquidity of baking system and Central Bank’s key rate.

Воронноров — Sun, 26 Apr 2026 03:38:46 GMT

One of the functions of changing the key rate is to maintain the liquidity of banks in the neutral zone.

Figure 1.

The deviation of this indicator to the deficit area, that is, above zero, is a sign of weakness in monetary policy.

Thus, further reduction of the key rate becomes an uncertain issue.

US budget expenditures.

Воронноров — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 03:16:11 GMT

The annual growth rate of budget expenditures over the past twelve months in the United States remains low, so the dollar has every chance of being strong.

Gazprom Neft.

Воронноров — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 09:21:47 GMT

Gazprom Neft has exhausted its ability to pay unearned dividends.

Thus, it will return to more unpleasant levels.

It's impossible to predict exactly now, but some boundaries and numbers can be outlined.

Figure 1.

The company does not provide full-fledged reporting, but this can be expressed through indirect dependencies, such as CF^2/ balance sheet or Net profit^2/ Working Capital.

Budget and inflation.

Воронноров — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 15:58:30 GMT

Budget expenditures are returning to 17% and the average level.

This directly affects inflation, which is also returning to its average level of about 7-9%.

This is not the best background for lowering the Central Bank's interest rate.

Figure 1,2,3,

Monetary base.

Воронноров — Sat, 04 Apr 2026 09:06:36 GMT

Despite the Central Bank's good key rate, cash continues to flow out of banks.

Figure 1.

This is an unfavorable sign for inflation and monetary policy and indicates its weakening.

The risks of the financial system always grow with the growth and fluctuations of the monetary base.

Figure 2.

EL5-Energo.

Воронноров — Sat, 28 Mar 2026 16:08:58 GMT

The company showed a good report and increased the chances of growth on the stock exchange and a return to paying dividends in the near future.

Budget expenditures.

Воронноров — Sat, 28 Mar 2026 14:39:42 GMT

Budget expenditures returned to the average level with a growth rate of 17%.

This is not good for inflation, and unless spending is reduced, the market interest rate will remain stuck at the same level.