The ruble has not fallen yet.  It's just strong fluctuations around the midline.

The company continues to lose money, although its operating cash flow is growing.

Figure 1.

The last figure for the half-year of the twenty-third year was doubled to be presented in an annual format.

The figures of net working capital confirm the loss of money.

Figure 2.

Inflation takes momentum. 

The main reason for the growth of the exchange rate is a sharp drop in the current account balance.

The picture shows new data for the second quarter and the first half of the year.

As we know, money printed in large quantities cannot exist without movement.

Since this is short-term money, they will look for liquid and secured assets that are not scary to hold.

Now a foreign currency is the best option to feel confident in the future.

Thus, financial agents, and this is quite logical, create a rally.

Figure 1 and 2.

Fundamentally, the demand for the dollar is expla ... Читать дальше »

The main topic at the moment is the printing press, whose efforts are already giving a fairly noticeable result.

Figure 1,2,3,4.

The excess of money manifests itself as a continuation of the budget deficit, which is covered by the reserve fund and borrowings in the money market.

This surplus, which is spent by the budget, eventually turns into money in the hands of people and accumulates on short-term deposits or in dollars.

At the same time, long-term government securities are falling in ... Читать дальше »

Finance is a wonderful abstraction with which we can represent the complexity of economic processes in one row of numbers.

When the Central Bank shrinks the growth of reserve money, it means that it blows away the past bubble.

Here is an analysis of the reporting and some prospects for receiving dividends.

Sber actively issues loans, and this has a pretty strong effect on the balance sheet.

Picture 1. 

If there is growth somewhere, then there is a fall somewhere.

The balance sheet loses liquidity, which I define as a coefficient:  = 1- loans issued/ balance sheet.

Picture 2.

< ... Читать дальше »

Below are two pictures.

One of them is the result of the printing press, presented in the form of the growth rate of the narrow monetary base of the Central Bank.

The second picture is the rate of inflation growth over a 23-year period.

One line is the annual growth rate, and the second line is the average growth rate for the period.

Everyone wants simplicity.

This is not always good, but sometimes acceptable.

Let me give you the simplest example of Sber share estimation.

First we need to know the value of money.

To do this, we look at the interest rate on government bonds.

The price of long-term bonds is about 10,5%, and this is the real value of money.

... Читать дальше »