The ability to calculate doubled changes in cash flows over a monetary period is very convenient and helps to convert these changes into an exchange price.

It's like a mathematical integral.

The market evaluates the future, so we double our integral of the past data.

This method will help us describe price fluctuations on the stock exchange based on various cash flow options.

The first option is simply based on dividends.

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It was as usual, all gifts at New Year. Inflation and budget expenditures.

Money has a roughly 7-year doubling period.

So, we take the amount of dividends for the last seven years and double it.

Then we put it on the graph of price.

I think I will continue this interesting research using free cash flow.

I don't think many words will be needed.

These two indicators are enough.

One is the liquidity of the balance sheet, and the other is the adequacy of equity.

Figs. 1 and 2.

The adequacy of equity is terrible, and therefore shareholders cannot expect anything good

Weekly inflation.

Today we are in a space of instability of financial life.

Therefore, we should choose financial instruments that will follow events less aggressively.

Now government bonds with a floating coupon and linked to inflation offer good prospects.

Floating coupon bonds are linked to the Central Bank's key rate and the liquidity of the banking sector.

Thus, it is useful to calculate the yield of the Central Bank's key rate for a certain period.

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Weekly inflation makes the day again.

The monetary situation is getting a little worse.

Financial risks are also growing.

Figure 1 and  2.

If we take the dividends for 8 years, double them and divide them by the number of shares, we get the following:

year16  27974

year17  14763

year18  13598 ... Читать дальше »

The presented report continues to deepen the contradiction between the reported net profit and the liquidity of the balance sheet.

This is not surprising due to the growth in the volume of loans issued.

Figure 1.

Liquidity can be expressed using a coefficient, which is explained below.

Liquidity coefficient = 1 – loans issued / balance sheet

Now it looks like this. ... Читать дальше »

It is not easy to draw it but it possible.

First, we will take these two indicators from the US statistics in their annual growth rate.

Figure 1.

The volatility of budget expenditures is high, so we need to smooth it out by calculating the average value.

Figure 2.

Then we compare this with the inflation ... Читать дальше »