Finance is a wonderful abstraction with which we can represent the complexity of economic processes in one row of numbers.

When the Central Bank shrinks the growth of reserve money, it means that it blows away the past bubble.

Here is an analysis of the reporting and some prospects for receiving dividends.

Sber actively issues loans, and this has a pretty strong effect on the balance sheet.

Picture 1. 

If there is growth somewhere, then there is a fall somewhere.

The balance sheet loses liquidity, which I define as a coefficient:  = 1- loans issued/ balance sheet.

Picture 2.

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Below are two pictures.

One of them is the result of the printing press, presented in the form of the growth rate of the narrow monetary base of the Central Bank.

The second picture is the rate of inflation growth over a 23-year period.

One line is the annual growth rate, and the second line is the average growth rate for the period.

Everyone wants simplicity.

This is not always good, but sometimes acceptable.

Let me give you the simplest example of Sber share estimation.

First we need to know the value of money.

To do this, we look at the interest rate on government bonds.

The price of long-term bonds is about 10,5%, and this is the real value of money.

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Today, this is a feature of the moment, our printing press continues to stamp money, and this becomes a problem for people's savings.

The figures below show the net issue of the Central Bank and the amount of money that leaves the banking sector.

The VTB case demonstrates well that equity matters, and one day some assets may turn into a pumpkin.

 Figure 1.

Banksters’ business and trading on the stock exchange have a common component: all your past profits are a reserve for future losses.

The one who does not know this simple rule, one day goes away.

Therefore, we need to somehow evaluate the company at the moment.

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Today, the question of the level of the future Federal Reserve rate is relevant.

Therefore, we need to somehow define its possible space.

Figure 1.

To this end, I have collected significant indicators in one picture.

The average ten-year increase in the monetary base, known as the currency, does not exceed 1,075.

Thus, we have every reason to assume that the FRB rate will not be higher. ... Читать дальше »

The company has presented a good report and has a stable flow of dividends.

Figure 1.

The enterprise is also able to pay more to shareholders, having a higher cash flow, so there is no visible threat to the future income of investors.

The price history in a large time dimension is shown in the figure below.

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The growth rates of the narrow monetary base and the rate of the Central Bank.

Sber did not submit its report in the usual form, and this created some difficulties.

I didn't know his operating cash flow and had to replace it with the sum of interest income and commission income with deductible costs.

But it's not that problematic.

My standard formula for calculating the possibility of receiving dividends is = operating cash flow * equity/balance sheet.

The meaning of this indicator is to maintain the proportion between equity and liabilities.