New data on US budget expenditures continue the trend towards normalization.

This is good news for the dollar.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/static-data/published-reports/mts/monthly-receipts-outlays-deficit-surplus/MonthlyReceiptsOutlaysDeficitSurplus.xls

Investors, inspired by metal prices, raised stock market quotations to a good optimistic level.

They value stocks as linearly approximated dividends for ten future years.

Figure 1 and 2.

This is a historically good estimate.

But I think the size of the upcoming dividends will disappoint them.

The main figure that we can extract from its report is a decrease in capital adequacy, which is approaching the minimum mandatory limit.

This bares the problem of uncollected money.

https://www.vtb.ru/media-files/vtb.ru/sitepages/ir/statements/results/rus-vtb-group-ifrs-as-of-30-november-2025.xlsx

Receiving dividends is becoming more and more vague.

At the end of the year, the printing press accelerated significantly.

This is not a good sign for monetary policy and indicates its weakness.

The Central Bank currently faces a difficult task.

On the one hand, inflation has slowed.

Figure 1.

On the other hand, cash is leaving banks, liquidity is falling, and the printing presses are kicking into gear.

Figure 2. Cash.

Figure 3. Monetary base.

Therefore, there is no simple s ... Читать дальше »

It seems that US budget spending has started to slow down.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/static-data/published-reports/mts/monthly-receipts-outlays-deficit-surplus/MonthlyReceiptsOutlaysDeficitSurplus.xls

Good news for the dollar.

Here are some distortions in the Sber report.

Officially, the capital adequacy ratio has increased, but if you calculate the ratio of equity to the balance sheet, it has decreased.

This skew means that Sber has bought a lot of government obligations.

Thus, due to this, the liquidity of the market has decreased, the level of available funds has drained and the interest rate has slightly increased.

This also explains the difference between the Central Bank's key interest rate and the inf ... Читать дальше »

This is monthly inflation in different dimensions.

Cash continues to leave banks.