The federal budget is in no hurry to reduce its expenses.

This also raises the issue of further interest rate cuts by the Central Bank.

It looks like the printing press is working again.

If this theme continues, the Central Bank's key rate may get stuck in place.

Yandex does not enlarge its ability to earn money.

Any increase in income worsens the balance sheet and increases liabilities.

Figure 1.

Obviously, and this is the main thing, the money received is not the shareholders’ money.

Therefore, the stock price assessment is clear and quite modest for me.

All the indicators I use give a similar picture, and I choose the best option with t ... Читать дальше »

There is a constant question about what the Central Bank should focus on when choosing the interest rate.

And very often this mission takes into account the annual growth rate of the M2 monetary aggregate.

But this is not entirely correct.

We must always remember that M2 is the monetary base + the velocity of the monetary base.

But the Central Bank's interest rate reflects only the velocity of money circulation.

... Читать дальше »

This is important data that can affect many things.

If the Central Bank's money supply continues to grow, the interest rate on money will fall rapidly, and the foreign exchange rate will begin to rise. It may also bring back an increase in inflation.

Today, budget expenditures look like in Figure 1.

But according to the budget law, at the end of this year they will look like in Figure 2.

And it will be very interesting to see this.

Budget expenditures directly affect economic activity and the speed of money turnover, which we observe as an increase in lending and an increase in M2.

That is, in this case, money turnover will fall, and the budget deficit, as strange as it may seem, will help keep the financial system on the surface. ... Читать дальше »

Russian authorities have destroyed access to key statistical resources, and I can no longer provide analysis on this topic.

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Ограничения применяются всеми крупнейшими провайдерами:Ростелеком, МТС, МегаФон, Вымпелком, МГТС и др.

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There is a certain trend here that may even suggest some actions to you.

Comparison of EU budget expenditure and inflation as an annual growth rate.

The following is a comparison of historical inflation in the EU and the USA as an average for this period.