Gazprom's money situation has worsened, and I don't understand what the "investors" are waiting for here. The maximum possible dividends cannot exceed ten rubles for many years, and the price of the company's shares is too high.

The European Central Bank holds the blow well enough and continues to reduce the monetary base.

The monetary base is starting to grow. This is a worrying sign for monetary policy.

It is no secret that the valuation of any stock is based on the company's income and dividends, which confirm the reality of this income for shareholders.

And we have to solve the problem of finding a formalized scheme that prescribes the possibility of paying dividends depending on the economic state of the company.

Despite popular belief, income alone is not the end result for evaluation.

This is just one vector describing the physics of the process.

Another vector is the potential r ... Читать дальше »

The federal budget is in no hurry to reduce its expenses.

This also raises the issue of further interest rate cuts by the Central Bank.

It looks like the printing press is working again.

If this theme continues, the Central Bank's key rate may get stuck in place.

Yandex does not enlarge its ability to earn money.

Any increase in income worsens the balance sheet and increases liabilities.

Figure 1.

Obviously, and this is the main thing, the money received is not the shareholders’ money.

Therefore, the stock price assessment is clear and quite modest for me.

All the indicators I use give a similar picture, and I choose the best option with t ... Читать дальше »

There is a constant question about what the Central Bank should focus on when choosing the interest rate.

And very often this mission takes into account the annual growth rate of the M2 monetary aggregate.

But this is not entirely correct.

We must always remember that M2 is the monetary base + the velocity of the monetary base.

But the Central Bank's interest rate reflects only the velocity of money circulation.

... Читать дальше »

This is important data that can affect many things.

If the Central Bank's money supply continues to grow, the interest rate on money will fall rapidly, and the foreign exchange rate will begin to rise. It may also bring back an increase in inflation.

Today, budget expenditures look like in Figure 1.

But according to the budget law, at the end of this year they will look like in Figure 2.

And it will be very interesting to see this.

Budget expenditures directly affect economic activity and the speed of money turnover, which we observe as an increase in lending and an increase in M2.

That is, in this case, money turnover will fall, and the budget deficit, as strange as it may seem, will help keep the financial system on the surface. ... Читать дальше »