Budget expenditures continue to remain at an excessive level, which pushes monetary aggregates to grow.

Figure 1 and 2.

In addition, the reduction in the Central Bank's key rate has led to a flow of funds into short-term liabilities and cash.

Figure 3 and 4.

This is a dangerous situation that creates a liquidity shortage and leads to an increase in the reserve obligations of the Central Bank.

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Since the beginning of February, the printing press has been back in operation.

Figure 1.

When the Central Bank prints cash that is not an interest-bearing liability, it must buy a debit asset.

Usually, the role of this asset is performed by gold, which also does not generate interest income.

But perhaps, for some time, this money can be used to lend to banks as the liquidity shortage increases.

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Dividends and all other indicators have gathered around the number 400.

The price on the stock exchange does not look cheap at all.

Figure 1.

Gazprom has a record for cash losses in the year 2025.

One of the functions of changing the key rate is to maintain the liquidity of banks in the neutral zone.

Figure 1.

The deviation of this indicator to the deficit area, that is, above zero, is a sign of weakness in monetary policy.

Thus, further reduction of the key rate becomes an uncertain issue.

The annual growth rate of budget expenditures over the past twelve months in the United States remains low, so the dollar has every chance of being strong.

Gazprom Neft has exhausted its ability to pay unearned dividends.

Thus, it will return to more unpleasant levels.

It's impossible to predict exactly now, but some boundaries and numbers can be outlined.

Figure 1.

The company does not provide full-fledged reporting, but this can be expressed through indirect dependencies, such as CF^2/ balance sheet or Net profit^2/ Working Capital.

Budget expenditures are returning to 17% and the average level.

This directly affects inflation, which is also returning to its average level of about 7-9%.

This is not the best background for lowering the Central Bank's interest rate.

Figure 1,2,3,

Despite the Central Bank's good key rate, cash continues to flow out of banks.

Figure 1.

This is an unfavorable sign for inflation and monetary policy and indicates its weakening.

The risks of the financial system always grow with the growth and fluctuations of the monetary base.

Figure 2.

The company showed a good report and increased the chances of growth on the stock exchange and a return to paying dividends in the near future.