Weekly inflation has a good start this year.

Central Bank published the estimates of monetary aggregates.

http://cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/dkfs/sr_ma_estim/

M2 continues to fall, and this is not only good news.

Figure 1.

The problem comes with a reduction in the rate of attracting money.

Money goes into liquid forms a ... Читать дальше »

The time is approaching for the payment of dividends, and investors are remembering about the company and where the money is.

Linearly approximate dividends for seven future years and quotes for the end of the year are on the figure.

New data on US budget expenditures continue the trend towards normalization.

This is good news for the dollar.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/static-data/published-reports/mts/monthly-receipts-outlays-deficit-surplus/MonthlyReceiptsOutlaysDeficitSurplus.xls

Investors, inspired by metal prices, raised stock market quotations to a good optimistic level.

They value stocks as linearly approximated dividends for ten future years.

Figure 1 and 2.

This is a historically good estimate.

But I think the size of the upcoming dividends will disappoint them.

The main figure that we can extract from its report is a decrease in capital adequacy, which is approaching the minimum mandatory limit.

This bares the problem of uncollected money.

https://www.vtb.ru/media-files/vtb.ru/sitepages/ir/statements/results/rus-vtb-group-ifrs-as-of-30-november-2025.xlsx

Receiving dividends is becoming more and more vague.

At the end of the year, the printing press accelerated significantly.

This is not a good sign for monetary policy and indicates its weakness.

The Central Bank currently faces a difficult task.

On the one hand, inflation has slowed.

Figure 1.

On the other hand, cash is leaving banks, liquidity is falling, and the printing presses are kicking into gear.

Figure 2. Cash.

Figure 3. Monetary base.

Therefore, there is no simple s ... Читать дальше »

It seems that US budget spending has started to slow down.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/static-data/published-reports/mts/monthly-receipts-outlays-deficit-surplus/MonthlyReceiptsOutlaysDeficitSurplus.xls

Good news for the dollar.