Traditionally, risks are defined as the ratio between free funds and non-free funds.

Thus, we can express the risks of the banking sector as the ratio between M2 and the monetary base.

For convenience, I use the amount of mandatory reserves and cash as the monetary base.

I got it as shown in the picture below.

Figure 1.

Although the risks stopped their aggressive growth in the 25th year ... Читать дальше »

VTB is converting preferred shares into common shares, and I'm recalculating the history to get a result based on the new data.

Figure 1.

Historically, the average amount of dividends is about 4.5 rubles per share.

Now the bank's primary profit comes not from interest income, but from bond revaluations.

This is not monetary in nature.

Figure 2.

... Читать дальше »

The growth of budget expenditures in the United States continues to remain ... Читать дальше »

In January, the M2 monetary aggregate continued to fall.

Therefore, we are seeing a decline in lending, and the interest rate will follow suit. This also makes long-term bonds and debt instruments worthwhile.

By the topic here:

https://fondmarket.ucoz.com/blog/budget_expenses/2026-01-29-809

In the last three days of January, the Ministry of Finance spent 1,180 billion rubles. Good pace,

But this does not significantly change the annual pace of budget expenditures.

Severstal has published a report that investors will not like.

Figure 1.

FCF dropped into the negative zone.

Net profit and working capital sank significantly.

Thus, investors will not receive their income.

If we evaluate the overall picture, then stock prices are trading below the linearly approximated trend, which coincides with the dividend line for eight future years.< ... Читать дальше »

Budget expenditures as of 27.01.26 show a significant decrease.

Financial turnover in the real and banking sectors will follow suit.

Weekly inflation has a good start this year.

Central Bank published the estimates of monetary aggregates.

http://cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/dkfs/sr_ma_estim/

M2 continues to fall, and this is not only good news.

Figure 1.

The problem comes with a reduction in the rate of attracting money.

Money goes into liquid forms a ... Читать дальше »

The time is approaching for the payment of dividends, and investors are remembering about the company and where the money is.

Linearly approximate dividends for seven future years and quotes for the end of the year are on the figure.