The VTB case demonstrates well that equity matters, and one day some assets may turn into a pumpkin.
Banksters’ business and trading on the stock exchange have a common component: all your past profits are a reserve for future losses.
The one who does not know this simple rule, one day goes away.
Therefore, we need to somehow evaluate the company at the moment.
The first feature of the current time is the price of money.
=100 / 10,7% ≈ 9 years.
So, we have to take the future income for these 9 years.
The bank does not provide us with a full report, and as a cash flow I have to accept net interest income + commission income – operating expenses.
Looking at the picture above, we can assume that the bank will get = 4396,491 billion rubles.
As we should understand, the shareholders' income is equal to = CF * equity adequacy.
Let's take the figure of equity adequacy equal to the average in recent years. = 0,106
=4396,491 *0,106 = 466,028 billion rubles.
The next big question is the number of shares.
Until 2023 company had 12960,541337338 billion number of ordinary share and 24477,7 preferred shares.
The profits were split in half between these types of shares.
But now everything has changed.
Capital adequacy has dropped and the large-scale additional issue awaits shareholders.
Today we do not know how many new shares will be issued at the end, but we can say with confidence that the previous order of profit distribution has been canceled.
We also know from the news that 8743 billion new shares have already been placed.
So, for the purposes of calculating the price per share, we can use the above totals.
=12960,541337338 +24477,7+8743 = 46181,241
The last action is a simple division = 466,028 / 46181,241= 0,010091284 rubles per share.
To verify a complex calculation, we could summarize the dividends that have been paid over the past nine years for all types of shares.
=0,009704 rubles per share.
Then we have to assume that as the printing press works, future dividends also double.
= 0,009704 * 2=0,019408 rubles per share.
The calculated figure corresponds to the price of the current emission.
But this does not reflect the number of new shares and those that will be issued.
Now we have such a situation that: either the bank doubles the number of shares, or does not pay dividends.
The result for the shareholders will be the same.
So our model works.
As of the current date, the quotation history looks like this.