Everyone wants simplicity.
This is not always good, but sometimes acceptable.
Let me give you the simplest example of Sber share estimation.
First we need to know the value of money.
To do this, we look at the interest rate on government bonds.
The price of long-term bonds is about 10,5%, and this is the real value of money.
So we can value money as a period of 7-9 years.
LOG 2 based on 1,105 ≈ 7 years. This is a compound interest.
100/1,105 ≈ 9 years. This is a simple percentage.
Then we look at the latest Sber dividends for this time period and summarize them.
|
|
|
year15
|
year16
|
year17
|
year18
|
year19
|
year20
|
year21
|
year22
|
year23
|
|
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
|
dividends
|
|
0,45
|
1,97
|
6
|
12
|
16
|
18,7
|
18,7
|
0
|
25
|
|
amount for 9 years
|
0,45
|
2,42
|
8,42
|
20,42
|
36,42
|
55,12
|
73,82
|
73,82
|
98,82
|
|
amount for 7 years
|
|
|
6
|
18
|
34
|
52,7
|
71,4
|
71,4
|
96,4
|
Further, we make the assumption that if the money doubles, then the dividends will double.
So we get the stock price:
= 99 * 2= 198 rub per share.
=96*2 = 192 rub per share.
|
