PhosAgro has experienced a surge in revenue over the past four years and paid out huge dividends.

These dividends even exceeded free cash flow, and balance sheet liquidity deteriorated.

Figure 1.

In the case of rapid income changes, free cash flow is not the best indicator if you are evaluating the long-term perspective and trying to make a forecast for the long future.

Free cash flow is too volatile and does not carry the memory of the past.

Thus, strict free cash flow (strict FCF) or net profit* (working capital/fixed assets) is more acceptable for this purpose.

They remember all expenses incurred in the past and reflect them in the ratio between the sections of the balance sheet.