Budget expenditures continue to remain at an excessive level, which pushes monetary aggregates to grow.

Figure 1 and 2.

In addition, the reduction in the Central Bank's key rate has led to a flow of funds into short-term liabilities and cash.

Figure 3 and 4.

This is a dangerous situation that creates a liquidity shortage and leads to an increase in the reserve obligations of the Central Bank.

These reserve obligations may not be noticeable now, but after a while it could lead to a sharp increase in expenses and loans.

It can also lead to a fall in the ruble exchange rate.

So, the further reduction in key rate becomes a risk.